My 12 betting rules are simple:
1.1 Who is the better player in terms of ranking?
Rankings don’t say everything, but they’re a key indicator of form and level.
1.2 What is the current head-to-head score?
I check for patterns, psychological edges, or consistent dominance.
1.3 Is there a clear domination?
Some matchups are simply one-sided — I don’t ignore history.
1.4 Does one surface stand out in their past meetings?
Surface-specific wins are more meaningful than overall H2H.
1.5 When was their last meeting?
More recent = more relevant. Styles and form evolve over time.
1.6 Is one of the players a big server?
Big servers change match dynamics, especially on faster courts.
1.7 Are the players from the same country?
Same-nation matchups often bring added pressure, familiarity, and unpredictability.
2.1 Is one player clearly more experienced on this surface?
Surface comfort affects timing, footwork, and shot selection.
2.2 Does the surface help or neutralize a big server?
Fast surfaces reward the serve; slow ones return the advantage to the rally player.
2.3 What’s their recent form on this surface?
Surface-specific momentum matters more than general form.
2.4 Is this their first tournament on this surface after a switch?
Transitions (clay to grass, hard to clay) can throw off rhythm and timing.
3.1 Where is the tournament in the calendar?
Beginning of the season? Post-Slam fatigue zone? Context matters.
3.2 Do they have a strong or weak history at this tournament?
Some players thrive at specific venues due to conditions or comfort.
3.3 What’s their track record at this stage of tournaments?
Quarterfinal pressure isn’t the same as a relaxed R1 match.
3.4 Is one of the players a local?
Home court advantage (or pressure) can shift focus and crowd energy.
3.5 How did they perform this same week last year?
Seasonal consistency is real. Some players always peak in certain weeks.
3.6 How many points are they defending this week?
ATP points to defend = added pressure. That weight can make or break a match.
4.1 What are their ATP Race rankings vs. official ATP rankings?
Race rankings show who’s in form this year — more relevant than legacy rankings.
4.2 Is one of them showing signs of fatigue?
Back-to-back matches, travel, and long sets wear players down quickly.
4.3 Is anyone coming back from injury?
Returning from injury = uncertainty. Even top players need matches to regain rhythm.
4.4 What’s their win rate over the last 5 and last 10 matches?
Short-term form helps spot trends — but I avoid overreacting to single streaks.
5.1 Match Format (Best of 3 vs. Best of 5)
In Slams, best-of-5 reduces variance and favors stronger players.
5.2 Weather & Conditions
Heat, wind, or humidity can tilt the match in favor of the fitter or more adaptable player.
5.3 Scheduling & Rest
One player had a day off, the other played a three-setter last night? That matters.
5.4 Travel & Jet Lag
Players traveling from far away or switching time zones often start slow.
5.5 Recent Coaching Changes
A new coach can re-energize a player — or destabilize things.
6.1 Public Hype / Market Overreaction
When everyone’s jumping on a narrative, value often hides on the other side.
6.2 Motivation & Tank Watch
Late-season matches with no ranking implications? I tread carefully.